Thursday Poll: What day will the government get its crap together?

I recently mentioned I have not yet contributed to my Roth IRA this year. If you haven’t been living under a rock, I’m sure you’ve noticed the markets are down a couple hundred points as the Republicans and Democrats are being a bunch of drama queens. I would never advocate trying to time the market because no one can predict the future, but almost surely one of two things will transpire over the next week…

Option A) The government shutdown continues, and for the first time in the Nation’s history, we will default on our national debt obligations. The economy will likely see an immediate and sharp decline. If I buy in today, with the dow at 14,800, it could easily be thousands of points lower a month from now if the economic crap hits the fan.

Option B) Republicans and Democrats continue bickering, but ultimately strike a deal. Either the national debt issue is pushed back for another few weeks/months, or the debt limit is permanently increased and the shutdown ceases. The markets will react positively to this news.

What’s going to actually happen?

No one knows exactly. But, I’m pretty sure no elected official wants to be part of the nation’s first debt default so I’m betting a deal is struck before default becomes a reality.

Now is the part where you, the reader, can help me out.

I want YOU to pick what day I should make my Roth IRA contribution. Ideally I will contribute on the last business day BEFORE The House and The Senate strike a deal (right before the markets would make a nice little jump). Only problem is, I don’t know what day said deal will be made.

To have a little fun, I’ll let you do the picking for me. Whichever day gets the most votes, will be the day I drop $4,500 in to my Roth (side note: I’ve already contributed $1,000 to regular IRA). 

This could end up being the greatest idea I’ve ever had, but it could just as likely end up being the worst. Haha. Should be fun either way right?

So reader…

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18 thoughts on “Thursday Poll: What day will the government get its crap together?”

  1. Don’t try to time the market. If it drops, it will recover. Just make regular contributions. You’re under 30 years of age and you have plenty of time to weather any turbulence. If you buy when the market is low, you will have bought that many more shares.

    • Ah, Larry, have a little fun… the swing in the market won’t be that great (unless we default, then it’s time to buy really low), so why not have a little fun with it? The people in Washington certainly are…

  2. I’m making small purchases any time the market is down this month (I have a bunch of cash sitting in my 401K). Why don’t you divide up your contribution and buy a little everyday?

    • Yup you should do what TimRiggins and Lutus have suggested – short term dollar cost averaging over the next week or so. Whether or not the US defaults, things will get sorted in the long term and you will still have bought at lower than typical prices.

  3. I think this is fun! I voted for the DAY OF THE DEFAULT (said in a booming CNN headline voice). Because these tallywackers can’t seem to do anything to agree and I think it will happen at the last possible minute. The whole thing is beyond ridiculous.

  4. I think today is perfect evidence of the old adage that “you can’t time the market.” My answer, regardless of ttoday’s market performance would have been that you dollar-cost-average in this down turn, ie, dump a certain amount of money into your Roth every day the market is down. In the last several down days day’s I’ve thrown a but of money into my Roth every day and now I’m up. If your Roth is invested in vehicles that charge you per trade, this method won’t be as effective. However, if your Roth is invested in something like a Betterment account, the dollar cost average method on down days is a good strategy.

  5. My husband and I were discussing this strategy last night! BUT, we can’t find a for sure answer about whether or not we can open a Roth IRA in his name if he contributes to a SIMPLE IRA through work. It seems like you can from what we’ve read, but we’re not positive. Any thoughts?

  6. By the time you take money out of your Roth IRA many years from now, it will hardly matter whether you put in this year’s contribution at Dow 14,000 or 15,000. But it will matter if you neglect to contribute at all.

  7. This poll makes no sense.

    You admit that it is impossible to time the market, and then you ask people to tell you which day to invest… basically, to time the market.

    • I basically admitted that I was gambling. Timing the market and thinking you are guaranteed to see a great return of it is stupid. Timing the market, knowing you could totally be wrong but want to to gamble, is fun 😉

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